South Africa’s conundrum: ANC is caught between a rock and the EFF

by @Mangenatoons

Just three months after the end of the South African elections, the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) has proven to be a major thorn in the side of the ANC. The political clash between the EFF and ANC plays out like a conflict between an elephant and a mouse, with the ANC elephant appearing very fearful of new political party, EFF. Whilst the ANC saw a slight decrease in its electoral majority it still enjoys a comfortable position in parliament with over 60% of the seats compared to the EFF’s 6.25%. This will allow it to inform policy direction in the country. Once again the party has been given a five year opportunity to turn around the country’s socio-economic situation and achieve the long sought transformation lamented for since the end of apartheid. However, despite its dominance in the South African political sphere and the largess of state resources at its disposal, the ANC has reacted to the EFF in manner that suggests they have been shaken by the issues brought up by the fledgling political party.

All the EFF has done is to play the very card the ANC has played in front of its audience, whether in electoral campaigns or party rallies. The EFF is talking “left” and doing it in the very same manner Jacob Zuma did in his meteoric rise to usurp the ANC throne from Thabo Mbeki. As a party that has tried to cater to a “broach church”  of interest which have included, socialists, nationalists and capitalists, the ruling party is finding it difficult to compete with an EFF which is focused on one specific audience.  The ANC’s monopoly over leftist rhetoric is unravelling quickly, and the EFF is turning into a legitimate voice, something that did not appear likely in view of the immaturity and often misinformed rants of its political heads. The EFF has been able to tap into the frustration at the heart of the majority of South Africans who feel that they have been left out in the cold while a minority (mostly white with sprinkles of politically connected blacks) enjoy the riches of the country.

In the past 20 years the ANC has been able to restrain this frustration through significant improvements in access to basic services and reduction of poverty through a massive social welfare system. The South African government has had the ability to talk left and walked right, enabling it satisfy business interests whilst at the same time avoiding social upheaval by plugging the gaps of poverty through an extensive social welfare system. This has maintained peace between the haves and have-nots over the past 20 years, but cracks in the truce are starting to appear with the EFF simply taking advantage.

The mining sector and government’s reaction to the rising tide

Since the emergence of the debate on nationalisation and the increased instability in the mining, sector the ruling ANC has increased its own rhetoric around state intervention. While government has moved policy towards a focus on increased local beneficiation, and improving the participation of previously disadvantaged persons, the ANC has played to its audience by trying to match the radicalism of the merging EFF and AMCU voices. As has been noted in the past, ANC policy rhetoric is not usually translated into actual government policy. There is usually a great process of watering down key suggestions made in ANC conferences. This strategy by the party has often brought the country back to the very same place of friction between capital and the South African poor. In 2014 the ANC may not be able to keep up this strategy which is starting to be viewed as a charade by a new emerging left led by the EFF.

The mining sector should be viewed as the canary that will determine a lot of what may occur across the South Africa economy.