South Africa: Four factors that should make the 2014 election a watershed moment

After 20 years in power the ANC has reached a pivotal moment, where rhetoric and an electoral mandate will no longer be enough to placate the South African public. Four factors mean that Wednesday’s election should be another watershed moment in the country’s politics.

1. Corruption and mismanagement has eroded support for the ANC.

The way the party has – or has not – responded to incidents and allegations of corruption, maladministration and wasteful expenditure of state funds have created a perception that the ANC will put its own interests before that of the country. Public distrust of government is now higher than at any point since 1994. Respect for government decision-making is likewise declining. This is exemplified in the Gauteng public’s recent widespread rejection of the government’s e-tolls policy. The ANC will win the election but may have to govern a country in which substantial numbers of people feel that it does not have the legitimacy to do so. An administration which has lost credibility could find itself needing to govern through other means, enforcing decisions through the courts and the security apparatus.

2. Discontent over the democratic dividend.

South Africa has made significant leaps forward since 1994 but remains plagued by high unemployment, poverty and growing inequality. Sections of the electorate feel that many of the ANC’s policies have failed to achieve their proposed outcomes. Over the past five years South Africa has witnessed intense protests in response to bad or non-existent service delivery, state policies out of touch with general public sentiment and dissatisfaction with the average standard of living. Linked to the discontent over the democratic dividend is growing distance between the present realities and the past indignities of apartheid. Trevor Manuel, the outgoing Minister of Planning, recognised as much in an  uncharacteristic public criticism of the party last month when he said ‘our government has run out of excuses, we cannot continue to blame #apartheid for our failings as a state.’ This is the first time that South Africans born after the end of apartheid can vote. The message to the ANC is clear – no more excuses.

3. An emerging radical left outside of the ANC alliance.

Discontent has led to fissures within the tri-partite alliance, raising the medium-term possibility of a split. The ANC has already seen the formation of a radical left wing party by its former Youth League President, Julius Malema. Malema’s Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) party has brought back the policy rhetoric of radical economic transformation, including nationalisation. This has been received well by the unemployed youth, the poor, and a middle class unhappy about the level of racial transformation in the economy. These groups see the EFF as a panacea to ANC’s shortcomings and a better alternative than a liberal Democratic Alliance (DA). A second front is emerging from the metalworkers’ union, NUMSA’s decision to not support the ANC in the 2014 election campaign. The #COSATU affiliate has announced plans to create a socialist party to contest future elections. The emergence of these new actors on the far left will have an influence on ANC policy in the next five years as it tries to hold on to its position as a voice for the working class and poor. It could push the political spectrum further to the left.

4. Who wins Gauteng?

One of the most interesting dynamics in Wednesday’s polls is the possibility that the ANC could lose #Gauteng Province. As the economic hub of the country Gauteng has most of South Africa’s black middle class, hosting 46% of this demographic. A loss in Gauteng would substantially increase the chances of the ANC being ousted in the 2019 elections. Opposition parties including the #DA and the #EFF have focused their campaign in the province and will chip away at the ANC’s support, particularly amongst black middle class and youth voters. While the ANC has won consistently in Gauteng in past elections, it has been the one of its worst performing regions. The rapidly changing demographics of the province, with high levels of #urbanisation and rising socio-economic mobility, make it rife for disruption. 

Originally published on the africapractice blog here: http://www.africapractice.com/blogposts/page/24/?id=6120