South Africa 2014 Election outtakes: Absent youth and unlikely alliances

As expected the #ANC is set to retain its electoral dominance in South Africa in spite of countless social, political and economic problems over the past five years.  Although a decrease in percentage points for the ANC has been seen, South Africa’s small opposition parties have been unable to make a substantial dent in the hegemony of the ruling party. The goodwill that the ANC has amassed over 100 years, including the past 20 years of successes in governance, has ensured the party remains at the seat of power in South Africa.

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The elections results highlight that there have been no substantial changes in voting patterns in South Africa since 2009. The ANC and the #DA have retained their core constituencies, and many of the small political parties have hemorrhaged support, most likely to the advantage of the #EFF and the DA.

While the results are still coming in there are a few outtakes to look at from these elections.

The born-frees

Voter turnout amongst youth has been very low in these elections with only a third of the 18 to 25 age demographic registering for the 2014 elections. To many, the born-frees were seen as a key group who would have shifted votes away from the ANC. While this perception of a non-ANC aligned youth vote might have been mistaken, the apathy of young people is not a good sign for democratic participation. South Africa’s youth currently experience one of the highest unemployment rates in the world, standing at over 50%. The policies in the next five years will have an impact on their future economic prospects and yet many of them have had no say in who would govern them.  An apathetic youth demographic could pose serious risks to social stability, particularly as they make up a great number of urban migrants. Youth have at times been part of a destructive force in service protests, and so their absence from these elections needs to be noted by the incoming government.

ANC and EFF coalition for radical transformation

The ANC is going to fall short of the desired two-thirds majority. As a result, the ANC might have to work with smaller parties in order to push radical social transformation.  The economic frustrations in South Africa which have put pressure on employment and poverty rates, and have increased inequality, are likely to push policies in the country further left. Pressures from within the ANC alliance, particularly from factions trying to break away from the ANC, could also push concessions from government.

With the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) of Julius Malema guaranteed a number of seats in parliament we can expect to see a lot more debates around key economic issues in South Africa such as black economic empowerment, affirmative action, and state interventions in key industries. From their newly appointed seats, they will have a platform to push for action on issues such as student loans, unemployment allowances for youth and increases in social grants.

In a sense of some irony the ANC and the EFF may find themselves having to cooperate with each other; should they want to implement radical social policies that require a constitutional amendment. The two-thirds majority required in parliament could be achieved with cooperation between the ANC at around 63% and EFF at 4.6%. In this sense, South Africa’s shift to the left is likely to go ahead as the government tries to meet the demands of a population in a dire condition economically. 

Originally published on the africapractice blog here: http://www.africapractice.com/blogposts/page/24/?id=6222

#election #bornfree #voter #IEC